CMS Releases 2014-2024 Projections of National Health Expenditures

Posted on Wednesday, July 29, 2015 9:13 AM

According to a recent report published in Health Affairs authored by CMS’s Office of the Actuary (OACT), total healthcare spending growth is expected to average 5.8 percent in aggregate over 2014-2024. This rate of growth is substantially lower than the 9 percent average rate seen in the three decades before 2008, according to the authors. Healthcare spending in the United States is projected to have reached $3.1 trillion in 2014, or $9,695 per person, and to have increased by 5.5 percent from the previous year as millions gained health insurance coverage, as well as from new expensive specialty drugs. Additional findings from the report:

  • Medical price inflation was 1.4 percent. Hospital, and physician and clinical services, which make up the largest portions of medical prices, also increased slowly at a 1.4 and 0.5 percent, respectively.
  • Per-capita premium growth in private health plans is projected to slow to 2.8 percent in 2015 reflecting the expectation of somewhat healthier Marketplace enrollees and the increasing prevalence of high-deductible health plans offered by employers.
  • In 2014, per capita Medicaid spending is projected to have decreased by 0.8 percent as the newly enrolled are expected to be somewhat healthier than those who were enrolled previously.  Overall spending, however, is projected to have increased by 12.0 percent in 2014 as a result of a 12.9-percent increase in enrollment related to the ACA coverage expansion.

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